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2.2. A method of synthesis of illegible mathematical models of forecasting and early diagnostic of occupational diseases of workers of electric power industry.

The base mathematical apparatus of methodology of synthesis of hybrid illegible solving rules chosen in-process in the known literature

It is stated as the general recommendations for choice adequate to a solved problem of illegible models from their set set [64, 65, 66, 75].

The solution of difficult specific problems to which the problems solved in given dissertational work refer to, demands the analysis of direct usability of known methods of synthesis and in need of working out of the new methods considering specificity of structure of data and ways of their machining for the purpose of achievement of the best results on quality and a time of accepted solutions.

The basic specific feature of problems solved in-process is that in real conditions, on people serving installations of electric power industry, except the basic powerful electromagnetic field of a commercial frequency in 50 Hz act sochetannye electromagnetic fields of a radiofrequency range, including a resonant frequency of atoms of hydrogen of molecules of water (42 mgts), and also, in certain geographical and industrial conditions the highest frequencies (radiolocation, wireless computer networks, etc.) which coincide with frequency of the informational processes of bioinstallations and powerful constant magnetic fields, for example in a service area of the Kursk magnetic anomaly.

In known works of the electromagnetic fields devoted to affecting on the person agency of the gated out class-room of electromagnetic fields, for example industrial networks, on a state of health of the person is studied. For example, in-process [93] mathematical models "connecting" disease of cardiovascular system with affecting of industrial networks and broadcasting installations in city boundaries are resulted. In works [63, 94] mathematical models are resulted

Forecasting and early diagnostic of diseases from contact of the person to a constant magnetic field in the conditions of the Kursk magnetic anomaly, in a combination to other risk factors of Zheleznogorsk region of Kursk area. Other analogous works investigate marks of other types of fields in the core without them sochetannogo affectings [2, 80, 86, 89, 96].

There is a number of works devoted to agency qualitative analysis sochetannyh (one frequency from different sources) and mixed (various frequencies) electromagnetic fields with pulling out of offers (hypotheses) that sochetannye and the mixed affectings reinforce negative effect from such affecting on a human body, however in the known literature is absent the description of methods, models and algorithms allowing with accuracy comprehensible to practice to predict emersion and development of accompanying diseases and negative change of a functional condition [1, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 13, 14, 16, 89, 96].

Complexity, indeterminate form and weak level of scrutiny of mechanisms sochetannogo affectings of electromagnetic fields of a various modality on a human body does inconvenient use of traditional and widely applied methods of forecasting and the theory of a pattern recognition for the solution, the problems put in-process. This complexity gains in strength that affecting of electromagnetic fields on the person is accompanied: variability of intensity of the affecting

Electromagnetic fields; difficulty of the account of a time of affecting on the person of fields of a various modality, presence of variety of others ekzogennyh and endogene risk factors with their badly considered dynamics etc.

Taking into account the listed features of affecting on a human body of risk factors connected with manufacture and transfer of industrial electromagnetic fields following recommendations about synthesis of required hybrid illegible solving rules are offered.

At the first stage of synthesis the commission of experts having experience of synthesis of hybrid illegible solving rules for forecasting and diagnostic of the occupational diseases fathoming mechanisms of affecting on the person of electromagnetic fields, owning methods of the system analysis in biomedical researches and prepared for expert work on method Delfi is formed. Quantitative composition of the expert
Groups it is defined by the demands accepted in kvalimetrii. Quality of work of experts is mustered on test problems on factor konkordatsii.

At selection of expert group and test tasks for it it is necessary to have in view of, that according to references electromagnetic fields "directly" affects nervous and immune system of the person. Immunity decrease together with other risk factors, are characteristic for concrete locality and concrete manufactures and conditions of transfer of electric energy with the greatest probability provoke diseases of cardiovascular system, breath system, zheludochnoyokishechnogo a section and urinogenital system.

At the second stage of researches the type of the factories of electric power industry, (thermal power stations (TES), atomic power station nuclear energy stations, water-power stations (a river plant), substantions, service of high-voltage electric mains (LEP), etc.) is defined. For the chosen type of the factories the frequency spectrum of electromagnetic affecting, average power and individual (personal for each worker) an estimated time of affecting is defined.

The analysis of references and own researches show, that the most essential risk factors are characteristic for several ranges of frequencies: a commercial frequency of power transmissions of 50 Hz; a radio frequency around 42 mgts (a resonant frequency of kernels of atoms of hydrogen); a constant magnetic field of a high tension; the highest frequencies, which dangerous ranges are commensurable with frequency ranges of the informational exchange on bodies and human body systems most strongly "giving in" to act of other "strong" facts of risk.

At synthesis of elements of the illegible solving rules considering agency of an electromagnetic radiation on a human body it is necessary to consider nonlinear character of risks which is characterised by that
At a small time even very intensive affectings the risk of origination of occupational diseases practically is absent, and in process of increase in this time the risk of emersion and development of diseases of nervous and immune systems grows essentially nonlinearly, having more naturally a "saturation" threshold at origination of a professional pathology.

Working conditions in concrete industrial conditions are studied and risk production factors (except electromagnetic fields) generating emersion and development of occupational diseases are defined. The analysis of sources of the literature and own observations have allowed to draw a leading-out, that the greatest marks (in the absence of extreme situations) are characteristic for thermal power stations (a microclimate with the raised temperature and draughts, high level of noise and vibration (steam boilers, crumbers of a flour milling of coal, pumps, ventilating fans, etc.), the maintenance in air of some departments of chemical substances (benzapiren, dioksid nitrogen and sulphur, phenol, oksid carbon, a toxic dust, etc.)

On the gated out risk factors the alphabet of class-rooms of investigated occupational diseases is formed. It is considered, that in the conditions of TES marks of oncological diseases, diseases of system of breath, vibrating sickness, kohlearnyj nevrit, diseases of nervous system, disease called by an intoxication are raised, etc.

Additional ecological and natural risk factors not connected with manufacture and electric power transportation on which the list of the alphabet of investigated class-rooms of a state of health is specified are studied.

For the chosen class-rooms of diseases according to recommendations [63, 66, 75, 81, 82, 94, 109, 111] individual risk factors and lists of parametres by which taking into account available medikoyotehnicheskih and ecological restrictions it is expedient to measure at are defined
Surveyed by traditional methods investigated in medicine, and taking into account recommendations [34, 67, 72, 76, 77], possible application of methods refleksodiagnostiki.

Taking into account recommendations [66, 69, 75, 119, 123] methods and means of an estimation of a functional condition which influences as reliability and quality of work of the person in the conditions of industrial activity so on its state of health are chosen.

In works [75, 119] it has been shown, that at synthesis prognosticheskih solving rules except is traditional-used signs it is expedient to size up a functional condition and a functional reserve of all organism and its bodies and systems. Taking into account it it is recommended to choose methods and control devices of a functional reserve of an organism and its systems being guided, for example recommendations of works [22, 66, 75, 119, 127].

At the third stage of researches for the chosen alphabet of class-rooms of conditions and in the presence of mediko-technical possibilities methods and means of an estimation of investigated class-rooms of conditions are defined independent from accepted in the given work.

In works [22, 72, 85, 88, 120, 121, 122] it is recommended for primal problems and early diagnostic, and also for an estimation of a condition of a psychoemotional pressure and consolidation (the basic class-rooms of functional conditions) to use electric resistance of biologically active points (Bath) as these characteristics of a power condition of meridional structures of an organism change the parametres long before emersion of matching clinically defined syndromes. In works [46, 63, 66, 75, 81, 82, 94, 109, 111, 150] mathematical models of forecasting and early diagnostic of diseases of system of breath, cardiovascular system, zheludochnoyokishechnogo a section, nervous and urinogenital system are presented. Presence of independent means of decision-making on a state of health and its changes allows
To generate the training and control samples, allowing to investigate structure of studied class-rooms of conditions with formation of recommendations about synthesis of required solving rules and as to make statistical quality check of work of the synthesised solving rules according to the general methodology of synthesis of hybrid illegible solving rules [66, 75].

Taking into account that sochetannye and the mixed affectings of electromagnetic fields in a combination to other risk factors can call multiplicate effect in a change of state of health and a functional condition of workers serving

energopredprijatija, energoustanovki and electric mains in the apparatus of the prospecting analysis it is necessary to switch on illegible modification of a method of the group account argumetnov oriented (as a part of the general methodology of synthesis of hybrid illegible solving rules) on revealing of possible multiplicate communications between investigated class-rooms of conditions and investigated structure of signs (risk factors) with reception private and (or) final rules of decision-making including primal problems and early diagnostic [66, 75, 78].

At the fourth stage of synthesis reception of required mathematical models taking into account available mediko-technical and economic possibilities is carried out.

Considering the leading part of an electromagnetic radiation in emersion and development of occupational diseases of the workers occupied in electric power industry and a weak level of scrutiny of this type of risk factors, we will observe some alternatives of synthesis of matching private solving rules on forecasting and early diagnostic of diseases of nervous and immune systems taking into account the general methodology of synthesis of hybrid illegible solving rules.

In the presence of representative training vyborok with use of algorithms MGUA interconnections between the chosen are installed
Ranges chastotsrednimi powers of radiations affecting the person on these frequencies Pjстажем of work in which current the surveyed was in an affecting zone diapazoni the response in

Aspect of forecasts and early ranges on the class-room

According to a technique presented in works [66, 75, 78] private confidence UEP1в the forecast (the early diagnosis) class-room diseases ωlв an expression aspect is defined:

Where - the base variable is defined Kolmogorov-G by polynomials abora for model with number r in the class-room ωl.

In a general view base variable Zявляется funktsionalom from parametrovto is

Where Fфункции communications between a base variable, parametres of electromagnetic fields and the work experience; j = 1...., m, m - number of investigated frequency ranges (components) with obligatory turning on of the basic oscillated frequency (50 Hz) and in need of the constant magnetic field, showing the external ecological factor.

In works [66, 75, 78] the developed description of procedures of synthesis of illegible models of decision-making on the basis of MGUA is given. At presence

Representative training sample model 2.14 will be the most exact, but its synthesis demands conducting of the big and long exploratory work, demands considerable labour and time resources in the presence of shots of matching qualification.

Comprehensible models on accuracy with smaller resources for their synthesis can be gained proceeding from the assumption that, that for each of the chosen frequency ranges on concrete work stations average stress level electric Eи magnetic H fields is defined, and in matching sanitary norms and rules maximum permissible levels of this field are defined and the list of pathologies, characteristic for affecting of fields of a commercial frequency (50 Hz) and a radiofrequency range is resulted.

For a constant magnetic field characteristic for some regions of an arrangement of the factories of electric power industry a risk major factor is magnetic intensity H0, and matching standard norms and rules instal maximum permissible level for industrial conditions of 8 ka/m.

For the Kursk magnetic anomaly stress level of a geomagnetic field of land attains 2 Erstsda at threshold value 0,45 Erstsda, that matches 159 A/m and 35,8 A/m.

Taking into account told and taking into account recommendations [46, 66, 71, 75, 96] in the capacity of base variables for construction of functions of a fitting it is expedient to use expressions:

50

Where - a mean of characteristics of an electromagnetic field frequency diapazonadlja electromagnetic fields industrial and

Radio frequencies, - average stress level of a constant magnetic field

Lands; - maximum permissible level of stress level (for

j

Geomagnetic terrestrial field - background value of a field is equal 35,8 A/m); tj - a time of a finding of the person in a service area of an electromagnetic (magnetic) field diapazonanormirovochnaja function of extent of agency

Electromagnetic field diapazonana emersion and development of disease of extent of agency of a time of a finding of a range surveyed under the influence of an electromagnetic (magnetic) field

At construction of schedules of functions prinadlezhnostieksperty

Are guided to literature data, own knowledge of frequency of diseases ω electromagnetic fields of a various modality called by act, intensity and duration.

The "good" help for construction of matching schedules is presence of bar graphs of distribution of installations from investigated class-rooms of conditions on shkalamrekomendatsii on construction

grafikovs reception of matching analytical models

Are resulted in works [66, 71, 75].

Typical schedules of functions of extent of agency and fitting function are resulted on fig. 2.1

Drawing 2.1 Alternatives of typical counts

In private alternative at difficulties in construction of functions experts can realise ball otsenkustepeni agencies

Electromagnetic field diapazonadlja the typical list of working conditions of workers of the factories of electric power industry, for example, on a scale 0..., 10 on which matching function of extent of agency For formation shkalymozhet is defined to be used the following

Questionnaire fragment.

1. A work station and (or) provisions on a labour safety are organised in such a manner that at workers occupational diseases provoked by affecting EMP industrial frequencies - 0 balls practically are not observed.

2. Roughly at 10 % of workers appears diseases of nervous and immune system within 10 years of work - 1 point.

3. Roughly 20 % of workers have diseases of nervous and immune system in a current of 10 years of work - 2 points.

In other alternative questions can be connected with stress level of an electromagnetic field, and questions can switch on characteristics of the mixed field.

At the mixed affecting of electromagnetic fields on a human body of function of a fitting are defined for all frequency bands essential to solved problems. Aggregation of these functions of a fitting is carried out according to the general methodology of synthesis of hybrid illegible solving rules:

Where - aggregation function on all chosen ranges chastotpo to the class-room

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Scientific source Mjasoedova Marina Anatolevna. FORECASTING And EARLY DIAGNOSTIC of OCCUPATIONAL DISEASES of WORKERS of ELECTROPOWER BRANCH ON THE BASIS OF HYBRID ILLEGIBLE MODELS. The dissertation on competition of a scientific degree of a Cand.Tech.Sci. Kursk - 2019. 2019

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  3. BIBLIOGRAPHIC SPIKOK
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  5. Working out of a method of construction of hybrid indistinct models for forecasting of occurrence and complications of an arterial hypertensia at drivers of vehicles taking into account power characteristics of bioactive points
  6. the List of the used literature
  7. Stepashov the Novel Vladimirovich. the METHOD, MODELS And ALGORITHM of FORECASTING And EARLY DIAGNOSTICS of OCCUPATIONAL DISEASES of WORKERS of the AGRICULTURE CONTACTING With JADOHIMIKATAMI, ON THE BASIS OF HYBRID INDISTINCT TECHNOLOGIES. The dissertation on competition of a scientific degree of a Cand.Tech.Sci. Kursk - 2018, 2018
  8. THE MAINTENANCE
  9. INTRODUCTION
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  15. SYNTHESIS OF INDISTINCT MATHEMATICAL MODELS OF FORECASTING AND EARLY DIAGNOSTICS OF THE DISEASES PROVOKED BY ACTION AGRICULTURAL JADOHIMIKATOV.
  16. 3.2. Synthesis of hybrid indistinct solving rules of forecasting of occurrence of occupational diseases of workers of the agriculture occupied in plant growing.