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Mathematical models for an estimation of risk of a repeated heart attack of a myocardium to informative signs хі... хі8

According to the general approach to the synthesis of heterogeneous qualifiers stated in subsection 2.1, group of highly skilled experts (the coordination of act of expert group on factor konkordatsii W = 0,89) together with the engineer on knowledge using method Delfi has built functions of fittings to the class-room ω1 = ωΗΜ with base variables on scales IP.

The part of signs, from group traditionally used in medical practice, is coded by a bit pattern. For construction of functions of a fitting on this type of signs to experts one question was asked: «What weight on a scale from 0 to 1 has a sign xiв to the general share of confidence of the class-room ωΗΜ?».

In table 2.5 the opinion of experts and result of averaging of their answers by sign х2 is resulted.

Table 2.5 - Results of expert interrogation by sign х2

Experts Mean
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
0,03 0,03 0,05 0,06 0,07 0,07 0,05 0,05 0.05

Thus, fitting function to the class-room high risk IT by sign h looks like:

Other functions of a fitting are analogously gained:

For not binary IP with small number of graduations:

For IP X1и X18на drawings 2.6 and 2.7 schedules of functions prinadlezhnostii which were under construction analogously to schedules are resulted,

Resulted in drawings 2.4 and 2 5.с the account of answers of experts on questions of type Z1, Z2, Z3.

Drawing 2.6 - the Schedule of function of a fitting μω x (x1) from a base variable x1

Drawing 2.7 - the Schedule of functions of fittings μωγ (X18) to the class-room ω1

Results of mathematical modelling have shown, that at the maximum values of all functions of a fitting confidence of the forecast ω1 (with the account of parametres the FLOOR and AOA), counted by formula and attains magnitude TFi = 0,84 (i = IT) (TF - risk in emersion by IT in the rehabilitation period for the diagnosis with number -

Risk in emersion PIM in the rehabilitation period by sign h / + 1 for group of the signs which are traditional (specific) to medical practice i = IT). However in practice such situation meets extremely seldom. For most often meeting values of signs of traditional group Tfidostigaet of value 0,79. If not to use labour-consuming enough signs for reception x19и x20, magnitude TFiопускается to value 0,75. Therefore the further synthesis of solving rules consists in transpiring of a role of a psychoemotional pressure for an estimation of forecasting by IT in the rehabilitation period and a power condition Bath.

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Scientific source Kiselyov Alexey Viktorovich. HETEROGENEOUS QUALIFIERS With VIRTUAL STREAMS FOR INTELLECTUAL SYSTEMS of FORECASTING of the REPEATED HEART ATTACK of the MYOCARDIUM. The dissertation on competition of a scientific degree of a Cand.Tech.Sci. Kursk - 2019. 2019

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