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INTRODUCTION

Theme urgency. Modern technological development at global level is connected with vsevozrastajushchej a role of electric power industry which except the positive role creates the certain problems connected with considerable marks for health of people, occupied in manufacture and transportation of electric energy.

The analysis of working conditions of workers in an electropower complex has shown, that except obviously expressed electromagnetic affecting on a human body, variety of such essential risk factors as the raised noise level, vibrations and temperatures, a gassed condition, a dustiness, the maintenance of harmful chemical substances in air of the working zone, the raised electric voltage etc. affects, and is frequent with the basic industrial electromagnetic field (frequency of 50 Hz) on a human body affect sochetannye and the mixed electromagnetic fields capable to call multiplicate effect of affecting a human body leading to the raised marks of professional disease.

In a combination to specific features of an organism risk production factors lead to emersion and development of diseases of nervous and immune systems which in turn provoke diseases of cardiovascular and urinogenital systems, breath and digestion systems.

One of ways of improvement of quality of health services of the workers occupied in electric power industry, timely revealing of negative trends in a human body under the influence of a complex endogene and ekzogennyh risk factors with the subsequent optimisation of circuit designs of preventive maintenance and treatment of occupational diseases of an investigated contingent of workers is.

Taking into account told working out and research of methods of forecasting and early diagnostic of occupational diseases of the workers occupied in electric power industry with use of modern mathematical methods, the informational and intellectual production engineering is an actual problem.

Extent of a readiness of a theme of research. The analysis of modern approaches to the solution of problems of improvement of quality of health protection, by decrease in occupational diseases in various branches of a national economy, including electric power industry, has shown, that as at us in the country, and abroad for the analysis of professional disease use two types of models: by hygienic criteria by comparison of affecting risk factors with maximum permissible concentration (maximum concentration limit) or maximum permissible levels (PDU); on medikoyobiologicheskim to criteria with use of an index of professional disease.

Thus the great bulk of researches is connected with the analysis of available disease on which it is difficult enough to build reliably "working" prognosticheskie models and models allowing to reveal early stages of occupational diseases.

Reception prognosticheskih and the diagnostic models providing quality demanded for practical public health services of decision-making, becomes complicated that analysed risk factors often have the incomplete and illegible nature, and the investigated structure of class-rooms possesses considerable areas of intersections which hardly give in to the matching analytical description.

Experience of a problem solving with analogous structure of data gained on chair of biomedical engineering of Southwest state university has shown, that for the solution of the chosen class-room of problems it is expedient to use methodology of synthesis of hybrid illegible solving rules.

The work purpose: improvement of quality of health services of workers of the factories of electric power industry, by working out of methods, models and algorithm of forecasting and early diagnostic of the occupational diseases provoked by electromagnetic fields of a commercial frequency on the basis of hybrid illegible rules of decision-making.

For object in view achievement it is necessary to solve following problems:

- To carry out the analysis of structure of work stations at the factories of electric power industry essential ekzogennyh and endogene risk factors, leading to emersion and development of occupational diseases for the purpose of sampling of an adequate mathematical apparatus of research;

-Develop a method of synthesis of illegible mathematical models of forecasting and early diagnostic of occupational diseases of workers of electric power industry;

-Offer a method of an estimation of a functional condition and a functional reserve of an organism and its systems in the conditions of act of electromagnetic risk factors;

- To develop informational-analytical model of interconnections of hybrid models with the block of the non-uniform informative signs presenting essential endogene and ekzogennye risk factors, including parametres sochetannyh and the mixed electromagnetic fields;

- To synthesise mathematical models of forecasting and early diagnostic of diseases of the immune and nervous systems provoked by electromagnetic fields of a various modality and stress level;

- To develop structure of system of a support of decision-making of the doctor

profpatologa, a solving primal problem and early diagnostic of occupational diseases of workers of the factories

Electropower branch with a matching control algorithm;

- To make approbation of the offered methods and means on representative control samples.

Scientific novelty of researches. In the dissertation the following results characterised by scientific novelty are gained:

- Method of synthesis of illegible mathematical models of forecasting and early diagnostic of occupational diseases of workers of the factories of electric power industry differing that in the conditions of the illegible description of parametres of affecting sochetannyh and the mixed electromagnetic fields on a human body in aggregate with others ekzogennymi and endogene risk factors, allows to synthesise the hybrid solving rules providing improvement of quality of forecasting and early diagnostic of diseases of workers of electropower branch;

- The method of an estimation of a functional condition and functional reserve of an organism and its systems in the conditions of act of the electromagnetic factors, based on use of the parametres characterising levels of a psychoemotional pressure, fatigue and monotonii, in a combination to a power unbalance of meridional structures of the organism, differing that at an estimation of a functional condition and a reserve of immune system parametres perekisnogo oxidations lipidov and antioxidative activity, and in the capacity of the loading test an electromagnetic field with in the fixed parametres are in addition used, allowing to size up marks in emersion and development of occupational diseases and reliability of work of the person solving problems of management by an electropower complex;

- System of illegible solving rules of forecasting and early diagnostic of occupational diseases of workers of the factories of the electric power industry, using the hybrid illegible models aggregating electromagnetic risk factors with other essential ekzogennymi and endogene factors, providing prognosticheskuju
Confidence not more low 0,85, and confidence of the solution on presence of an early stage of diseases - not more low 0,9;

- The control algorithm and structure of system of a support of the decision-making, differing use of the hybrid illegible mathematical models merged in hierarchical structures, allowing flexibly to operate tactics of conducting patients depending on dynamic distribution of risk factors in a working zone and organism specific features that provides improvement of quality of rendering of medical services of the workers occupied in electropower branch.

The theoretical and practical significance of work consists in development of production engineering of soft scalings, and in particular, theories of confidence, the theory of measurement of latent variable theoretical bases of illegible logic of decision-making, a method of the group account of arguments, in a problem solving of improvement of quality of health services of workers of the factories of electric power industry by working out of new generation of systems of a support of decision-making of doctors profpatologov.

The developed mathematical models allow to define confidence of decision-making under the forecast of emersion and presence of early stages of occupational diseases at workers of electropower branch.

The methods offered in-process, models and algorithm make a basis of system of a support of the decision-making which practical use provides improvement of quality of medical aid to workers of the factories of electric power industry.

Work is executed within the limits of the federal target program «Researches and workings out in the priority directions of development of a scientifically-technological complex of Russia on 2014 - 2020»

(«Conducting of applied scientific researches in the field of the bioinformational production engineering», the unique identifier of the applied
Scientific researches (design) RFMEFI57614X0071) and according to a scientific direction of Southwest state university «Working out of mediko-ecological informational production engineering».

Results of work are introduced in educational process of Southwest state university at preparation of masters in a direction 12.04.04"Bioengineering systems and production engineering» and used in branch PAO «the MRSK-CENTER - Kurskenergo» October RES and the Central regional hospital of October region of Kursk area as a part of which patients there are workers of the factories of the electric power industry which has been had in territory of October region of Kursk area.

Methodology and methods of researches. For the solution of tasks in view methods of the system analysis, the theory of bioengineering systems of medical appointment, modelling, the theory of synthesis of difficult informational systems, theories of algorithms, illegible assemblage, applied mathematical statistics, an expert sizing up were used. By working out hybrid nejrosetevyh decision-making modules in the capacity of tooling it was used Matlab 8.0 with the graphical interface of the user for Neural Network Toolbox with built in package Fuzzy Logic Toolbox.

The rules which are taken out on protection:

1. The method of synthesis of illegible mathematical models of forecasting and early diagnostic of occupational diseases of workers of the factories of electric power industry has allowed to gain the solving rules providing improvement of quality of decision-making on forecasting and early diagnostic of the required class-room of diseases in the conditions of illegible and incomplete representation of initial data at recut structure of class-rooms;

2. Mathematical models of forecasting and early diagnostic of occupational diseases of the workers occupied in manufacture and
To electric power transportation provide confidence of the forecast not worse 0,85, and in an estimation of presence of early stages of diseases - not more low 0,9.

3. A control algorithm, informational-analytical model of the knowledge base and offered system support decision-making provides flexible management of tactics of conducting patients depending on individual characteristics of an organism and dynamics of distribution of risk factors in a working zone of the factories of electric power industry that allows to raise quality of rendering of medical services to workers of electropower branch.

Extent of reliability and approbation of results. Results of research have shown their reproducibility in various conditions, absence of contradictions concerning illegible algorithms of decision-making and methods of mathematical modelling, and also the analogous results gained by other researchers. Results of experimental researches of solving rules on forecasting of occupational diseases of workers of the factories of electric power industry will be co-ordinated with earlier published experimental data on a dissertation theme.

The basic theoretical rules and scientific results of dissertational work were reported, discussed and have gained a positive estimation at the International and All-Russia scientific conferences: XXII International scientific and technical conference «Mediko-ecological informational production engineering-2019» (Kursk, 2019); the All-Russia scientifically-practical conference «Problems

Uses of electric power in farming »(Yaroslavl, 2018); the International scientifically-practical conference« Scientific maintenance

Agroindustrial manufacture »(Kursk, 2018); International nauchnoyoprakticheskaja conference of students, post-graduate students and young scientists« Agriculture: future contours ». (Kursk, 2018);. The international conference« the Science and an innovation-2012 »(Prague, 2012);

The international scientifically-practical conference «Regional economy, investments, innovations, social and economic development: the theory, methodology and the modernisation concept» (Moscow, 2013); the International scientifically-practical conference «Actual problems and innovative activity in agroindustrial manufacture» (Kursk, 2015); the International scientifically-practical conference of students, post-graduate students and young scientists «Agriculture: future contours» (Kursk, 2017)

Publications. The basic results of dissertational research are reflected in 1 3 scientific works, among which 4 papers in leading reviewed scientific logs.

Structure and work volume. The dissertation consists of the introduction, four sections, the conclusion and the list of the literature which is switching on 127 domestic and 56 foreign names. Work is stated on 162 pages of the typewritten text, contains 26 drawings and 16 tables.

1.

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Scientific source Mjasoedova Marina Anatolevna. FORECASTING And EARLY DIAGNOSTIC of OCCUPATIONAL DISEASES of WORKERS of ELECTROPOWER BRANCH ON THE BASIS OF HYBRID ILLEGIBLE MODELS. The dissertation on competition of a scientific degree of a Cand.Tech.Sci. Kursk - 2019. 2019

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