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Introduction

Work urgency. Throughout many years cardiovascular diseases (SSZ) are on the first place in structure of death rate of the population of able-bodied age. A death rate principal cause is the heart attack of a myocardium (IT) and the complications connected with it, especially if IT is repeated (PIM).

However, despite considerable successes of a medical science, there is opened a question on risk factors and methods of forecasting PIM.

The disease forecast in the majority of researches is reduced to the life forecast where in the capacity of finishing points all cases kardialnoj the death which are switching on dekompensatsiju of chronic warm insufficiency (HSN) and cases of sudden warm death are used. Possibility of the forecast of development PIM - the clinical problem necessary for sampling of tactics of treatment of the concrete coronary patient which gets the greatest urgency at stable and socially active patients.

Thus, the urgency of the given research is defined by necessity of martempering of figures of merit of forecasting of risk repeated IT.

Extent of a readiness of a theme of research. Under the authority of patients with acute IT the estimation of extent of risk of development PIM has great value, first of all. The estimation of the forecast sick of acute IT originally leant against clinical parametres and has been oriented on rather short interval of time. In 60-70th years of the last century there were long-term forecast indexes (Peel, Norris, Luria), oriented on the posthospital long-term forecast for the term up to 1-5 years. They were a prototype of modern risk-stratification of patients IBS. In works till 70th years in the core used the parametres gained in the block of the intensive
Therapies, the data gained at klinikoyoinstrumentalnom diagnostic study after 1-4 weeks from the beginning of disease later began to use.

Thanking prospektivnym to researches Russia allowing on the basis of level of risk factors to define risk of disease and death rate from SSZ for 5-10 years forward for the big populations (a city, area, the country) are developed prognosticheskie factors, including for the population. In the capacity of initial data for reception prognosticheskih parametres questionnaires of the doctor, questionnaires of the patient, results of laboratory and instrumental researches were traditionally used. Besides traditional methods of diagnostic study there are various scales of an estimation of risk of development of cardiovascular events. Estimated scale TIMI (Thrombolysis In Myocardial Infarction), offered E.M. Antman in 2000, represents simple and popular enough tool for a risk estimation. For definition of extent of risk use 7 criteria. Presence of each of criteria is sized up in 1 point. Accordingly, the bolshee quantity of points the patient, the above for it gains risk of death from cardiovascular events.

With development of computer production engineering tryings of a heading of the programmed forecasting in medical practice (M.M.Batjushin, JU.L are undertaken. Shevchenko). In particular, it is very frequent for forecasting PIM use solving modules on the basis of artificial neural networks or an illegible logic leading-out (N.A.Korenevsky, S.P.Seryogin). The systems integrating these two paradigms in the form of hybrid solving modules (N.A.Korenevsky, S.A.Filist) are known.

Known methods of forecasting have a number of essential deficiencies: definition of the individual forecast at bolshej remains to a part of patients unsatisfactory; practically there are no uniform systems of forecasting of origination and a disease outcome; forecast formulation is labour-consuming work for the doctor.

The Scientific and technical research problem is working out of methods of forecasting PIM based on automation of process of the analysis of factors
The mark by means of heterogeneous qualifiers, and the mathematical models, allowing to consider the factor of latent variables in mark PIM.

The purpose dissertational rabotyjavljaetsja improvement of quality of forecasting of a repeated heart attack of a myocardium on the basis of heterogeneous qualifiers with virtual streams and the account of additional risk factors in classifying models.

For object in view achievement it is necessary to solve following problems:

- To make the analysis of methods and forecasting models serdechnoyososudistyh diseases and a repeated heart attack of a myocardium;

- To develop a method of synthesis of heterogeneous qualifiers for an estimation of extent of risk of a repeated heart attack of the myocardium, based on aggregation of the heterogeneous data characterising functioning of various bodies and subsystems of an organism;

- To develop structurally functional solutions of the organisation of virtual streams in heterogeneous qualifiers of a repeated heart attack of a myocardium;

- To develop virtual models for classification of risk of a repeated heart attack of the myocardium, based on research of parametres of conductance of biologically active points by means of affecting on a biomaterial a pulse train of increasing voltage;

- To develop structure of intellectual system of forecasting of a repeated heart attack of the myocardium, builted on mnogoagentnom a marching to construction of the solving modules, based on an illegible logic leading-out and nejrosetevom modelling;

- To spend approbation of the offered heterogeneous qualifiers for an intellectual support of forecasting of a repeated heart attack of a myocardium with a various configuration of space of informative signs and various combinations of classifying models.

Scientific novelty. In the dissertation the following results characterised by scientific novelty are gained:

- Method of synthesis of the heterogeneous qualifiers, based on aggregation of the heterogeneous data characterising functioning of various bodies and subsystems of an organism, differing a consecutive reinforcement of quality of the classification, based on a clustering of "weak" qualifiers in the heterogeneous qualifier, allowing to gain solving rules for a quantitative estimation of extent of risk of a repeated heart attack of a myocardium in the rehabilitation period with accuracy demanded for medical practice;

- Method of construction of virtual models for classification of risk of a repeated heart attack of the myocardium, based on research of parametres of conductance of biologically active points, differing structure of the "weak" qualifiers builted on test signals, gained at affecting on a biomaterial a pulse train of increasing voltage, and odnoparametrovymi eksponentsialnymi the risk models, allowing to carry out transition from an absolute scale to a serial scale of an estimation of results of testing;

- Virtual models of classification of risk of a repeated heart attack of a myocardium, first of which is model of individual risk and it is builted on the basis of polynomial approximation of voltage-current characteristics in bioactive points with the subsequent illegible logic leading-out, and the second model is model of group risk and switches on three blocks, in first of which rationing of data concerning control values of test signals is carried out, in the second block the model on "crude" data on the basis of statistical researches in the form of approximating polynomials is under construction, and in the third block is realised nejrosetevaja model of the "weak" qualifier that allows to form the heterogeneous qualifiers aggregating risk factors on relevant biologically active points;

- Intellectual system of forecasting of a repeated heart attack of the myocardium, the switching on COMPUTER with programm modules of a data handling and a number of the auxiliary hardware components, differing modular structure
Decision-making on a mark of a repeated heart attack of the myocardium, allowing to raise figures of merit of classification on 14-16 % in comparison with known diagnostic models.

The theoretical and practical significance rabotysostoit that the developed methods, models, algorithms, a hardware-software complex and the matching software have made a basis of construction of system of a support of decision-making on classification of risk of relapse of a heart attack of the myocardium which pre-production operation of elements allows to recommend it to use at planning of preventive and rehabilitation provisions at conducting a post infarktnyh patients.

Work is executed within the limits of the federal target program «Researches and workings out in the priority directions of development nauchnoyotehnologicheskogo a complex of Russia on 2014 - 2020» («Conducting of applied scientific researches in the field of the bioinformational production engineering», the unique identifier of applied scientific researches (the design) RFMEFI57614X0071) and according to a scientific direction of Southwest state university «Working out of mediko-ecological informational production engineering».

Results of work are introduced in educational process of Southwest state university at preparation of bachelors in a direction 12.03.04"Bioengineering systems and production engineering» and there have passed tests in branch of medical rehabilitation of clinical scientifically-medical centre "Авиценна", Kursk.

Methodology and research methods. For the solution of tasks in view methods were used: the system analysis, the theory of bioengineering systems of medical appointment, mathematical statistics, control theory, mathematical modelling, nejrosetevogo modelling, an expert sizing up and decision-making. By working out nejrosetevyh models and modules of an illegible logic leading-out in the capacity of tooling it was used MATLAB. For data collection the module rapid-transfer ATSP is used with
USB 2.0 interface - E20-10 manufactures of Joint-Stock Company "L-Card" with the software developed in the environment of C ++ Builder 6 with use of libraries L-Card (Lisbari and LCome).

The rules which are taken out on защиту.1. The method of synthesis of the heterogeneous qualifiers, based on aggregation of the heterogeneous data characterising functioning of various bodies and subsystems of an organism, provides reception of mathematical models of an estimation of extent of risk of a repeated heart attack of a myocardium in the rehabilitation period with accuracy demanded for medical practice. 2. The method of construction of virtual models for classification of risk of a repeated heart attack of the myocardium, based on research of parametres of conductance of biologically active points, allows to carry out transition from an absolute scale to a serial scale of an estimation of results of testing. 3. Virtual models of classification of risk of a repeated heart attack of a myocardium, allow to build the heterogeneous qualifiers aggregating risk factors on relevant biologically active points and to raise figures of merit of classification on 6 %. 4. The intellectual system of forecasting of relapse of a heart attack of the myocardium, builted on the basis of conceptual model of heterogeneous qualifiers with virtual streams, allows to raise figures of merit of classification on 14-16 % in comparison with known diagnostic models.

Extent of reliability and work approbation. Results of research have shown their reproducibility in various conditions, consistency to the analogous results gained by other researchers in the field of research of system pace of live systems and intellectual systems of medical appointment. Results of experimental researches of solving rules on forecasting of cardiovascular risks will be co-ordinated with earlier published experimental data on a dissertation theme. Results of research have shown, that offered models and the informational production engineering can be recommended for forecasting serdechnoyososudistyh risks.

The basic theoretical rules and scientific results of dissertational work were reported, discussed and have gained a positive estimation at 14 International, All-Russia both regional conferences and seminars:

«Intellectual production engineering and means of rehabilitation and abilitatsii people with the restricted possibilities (ИТСР-2018)» (Moscow - 2018); «Pressing questions of biomedical engineering» (Saratov-2018); «Modern problems of the analysis of dynamic systems. Applications in technics and production engineering» (Voronezh - 2018); «the Informational systems and production engineering: theory and practice questions» (Kostroma - 2018); «the Lazerno-informational production engineering in medicine, biology, geoecology and transport» (Novorossisk - 2018); «nejroinformatika, its applications and the analysis of data» (Krasnoyarsk - 2018); «the Artificial intellect in the solution of actual social and economic problems of the XXI-st century» (Perm - 2018); «Regularity of development of modern natural sciences, technics and production engineering» (Penza - 2018);

«Proceedings of articles the III International scientific conference» (Czech Republic, Karlovy Vary - Russia, Moscow, 2018); «a science Role in society development: theoretical and practical aspects» (St.-Petersburg - 2018); «Medikoyoekologichesky informational production engineering» (Kursk - 2018, 2019);

«An artificial intellect in the solution of actual social and economic problems of the XXI-st century» (Perm - 2018); «Physics and radio electronics in medicine and ecology» (Vladimir-Suzdal - 2018); «Intellectual informational systems: trends, problems, prospects» (Kursk - 2013, 2015, 2017); at scientific and technical seminars of chair of biomedical engineering JUZGU (Kursk - 2012-2019).

Publications. The basic results of dissertational research are reflected in 17 scientific works, from them 4 papers in leading reviewed scientific logs.

Structure and work volume. The dissertation consists of the introduction, four sections, the conclusion and the list of the literature which is switching on 120 domestic and 26
Foreign names. Work is stated on 1 50 pages of the typewritten text, contains 40 drawings and 15 tables.

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Scientific source Kiselyov Alexey Viktorovich. HETEROGENEOUS QUALIFIERS With VIRTUAL STREAMS FOR INTELLECTUAL SYSTEMS of FORECASTING of the REPEATED HEART ATTACK of the MYOCARDIUM. The dissertation on competition of a scientific degree of a Cand.Tech.Sci. Kursk - 2019. 2019

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