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forecasting of probability of conservation of effect of antiviral therapy at HG a method of the analysis of survival rate

For an estimation of results katamnesticheskogo observations of the patients who have finished complete course PVT, have been used a method of the analysis of survival rate.

At the analysis of survival rate SVO (conservation of stable remission) at patients with HGV and HGS indicator CENSORED (conservation of the received result (SVO) to a final point of time) has been defined only at 3
Patients with HGS.

At HGV such results it has not been reached. At patients with HGV the cumulative share of survival SVO at the moment of time at stages 12, has made 24 and 36 months 0,4210,113, 0,1530,084) and 0,0530,51 accordingly. At patients with HGS the cumulative share of survival SVO at the moment of time at the same stages has made 0,4760,109, 0,2860,099 and 0,1430,076 (the Appendix 1 see, таб.1)

Average time of attainig the age SVO for HGV has made 7,5792,464, for HGS 14,03,460 (tab. 118).

Table 118

Averages and medians of time of attainig the age SVO

HG Sredneea Median
Estimation The item an error 95 % a confidential interval Estimation The item an error 95 %

Confidential interval

The bottom border The top

Border

IN 7,579 2,464 2,749 12,409 0,000 7,579
WITH 14,000 3,460 7,218 20,782 6,000 3,052 0,019 11,981 14,000

a. Estimation is limited to the greatest time of attainig the age if it is tsenzurirovannym.

Thus, the survival rate of result PVT at patients with HGS is better, than at HGV, practically in 2 times.

For the analysis of influence on survival rate of result PVT of various factors, following indicators were considered: a sex of a child, a nationality, presence in the anamnesis of contact to patients HG, parenteral manipulations, gemotransfezy, fibrosis stages (by data elastometrii), a virus load before the beginning of therapy and scheme PVT.

As a result of the carried out research have taped, that (SVO) the sex of a child, a nationality, virus loads and scheme PVT had statistically authentic influence on survival rate of the proof virologic answer.

Data of the analysis of survival rate SVO are presented in attainig the age tables (the Appendix 1 tab. 2) and graphic representations.

5.4.1.

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Scientific source Dmitriev Tatyana Gennadevna. CHRONIC VIRUS HEPATITISES At CHILDREN And TEENAGERS In REGION GIPERENDEMICHNOM. The PROGRAM of PERFECTION of RENDERING of the MEDIKO-SOCIAL HELP. The dissertation on competition of a scientific degree of the doctor of medical sciences. Yakutsk - 2014. 2014

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