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How Many People will the Virus Infect?

The Chinese authorities have locked down cities at the center of the outbreak, and researchers have been swift to share virus data with the World Health Organization and with researchers. But the numbers of cases have increased, and past 9,000 have surged in the past day, mostly in China.

This has resulted in one estimate that the virus could infect about 39,000 of the 30 million people living in the Wuhan region. It seems like the virus got out of hand in China, spreading too far, spreading too quickly to really be controlled.

In the best case, fewer people will get infected because the results of the control measures will start kicking in, says University of Hong Kong epidemiologist Ben Cowling. But it's too early to tell if efforts are working to quarantine men, and the common use of face masks. The virus incubation period-up to 14 days is longer than most prevention measures are in place, he notes.

In a worst-case scenario, according to another prediction model, some 190,000 people could get infected in Wuhan. Scientists are particularly concerned by the appearance of fresh outbreaks outside China. The virus has already spread in small, scattered clusters in Vietnam, Japan, Germany and the U.S., but officials were able to isolate the affected people. As of January 30 fewer than 100 cases were reported outside China.

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Scientific source Sidney Osler. Coronavirus outbreak. All the secrets revealed about the Covid-19 pandemic. A complete rational guide of its Evolution, Expansion, Symptoms and First Defense. 2019

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